大汶河流域河川天然径流演变规律研究  

Analysis of Natural Runoff Variation Lawin Dawen River Basin

作　　者：刘国军[1] 王海林[1] 马丽[1] 林洪孝[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学水利土木工程学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2010年第6期18-20,25,共4页Water Saving Irrigation

摘　　要：大汶河流域河川天然径流量具有年内变化不均、年际变化幅度大的特点,为分析河川天然径流的演变规律,本文应用累积距平法、Mann-Kendall法、小波分析等多种方法对大汶河流域53年的河川天然径流的变化趋势、突变特征以及周期特性进行了研究。分析结果表明:流域河川天然径流量略呈下降趋势,且存在阶段性变化特征,并于60年代中期达到突变水平;对天然径流序列的小波分析表明,主要存在2个尺度的周期变化,现阶段处于5年尺度下的相对枯水期。The inter-annual and annual changes of natural runoff of Dawen river basin changes obviously. In order to analyze the natural runoff law, some methods, such as the accumulative anomaly method, Mann-Kendall method, and wavelet analysis method, are used in this paper to study the variation tend, abrupt change and period of natural runoff in past 53 years. The results show that the natural runoff is on the downside, changes periodically and arrives at the level of abrupt change level in the middle of 1960s. It has two primary scales periodical change and it is in the dry season on the scale of 5 years.

关 键 词：大汶河 天然径流 变化趋势 突变 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]