厂商在市场需求及预测不确定下的多期定价研究  

A Firm Multi-period Pricing Decision Analysis under Demand and Forecast Uncertainty

作　　者：苏昊[1] 谭德庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,成都610031

出　　处：《世界科技研究与发展》2010年第1期108-110,124,共4页World Sci-Tech R&D

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70371045)

摘　　要：建立多阶段线性需求-价格模型,运用动态规划思想,针对耐用品市场需求量不确定及耐用品生产厂商市场信息预测不准的问题展开探讨。得到了如果消费者对耐用品价格的预期与耐用品生产厂商对市场的预期不一致,耐用品需求量的波动及厂商掌握信息量的多少将对耐用品生产厂商的最优定价具有影响等结论。并根据现实市场状况,对信息不对称下的耐用品定价模型的经济含义给予分析,结果表明模型对耐用品生产厂商的市场决策具有理论指导意义。Based on the condition of demand and forecast information uncertainty,we began our research by setting up a linear multi-period demand model.By employing the principle of dynamic programming,we got some results about the durable goods manufactures＇optimal pricing.If the anticipations between firms and consumers are inconsistency,the fluctuation of the durable goods demand and the information volume controlled by the finns will influence the optimal pricing of the finns.We also gave an analysis on the pricing model based on the real market status.The results showed that the model would play a significant role on the decision of the durable goods manufactures.

关 键 词：运筹学 定价 动态规划 耐用品 垄断厂商 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]