社会对极端冰雪灾害响应程度的定量评估研究  

A Special Method and Grading Index on the Quantitative Assessment about the Social Emergent Response to Extreme Low Temperature,Raining and Snowing,Icing Disasters

作　　者：陈正洪[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省气象科技服务中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]武汉区域气候中心,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第3期119-122,共4页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAC48B02);武汉区域气象中心科技发展基金重点项目(QY-Z-200807)

摘　　要：为了定量评估社会对极端冰雪灾害响应的速度和程度,以湖北省影响较大的媒体《楚天金报》2008年1月9日至2月5日每天刊载相关文章的版面位置、版面数、专版数为基础数据构成一个综合指标,研究其动态变化及与气象因子的关系,建立了综合指标的气象评估(预测)方程和社会应急响应程度的气象因子预测(评估)模型,划分了灾害等级及对应的气象指标,可供今后防灾工作借鉴。结果表明:(1)该指标能较好反映社会对冰雪灾害应急响应的速度和程度,其峰谷变化与积雪深度变化一致,并能反映灾害逐步加重以及认识逐步加深的3次过程;(2)该指标与积雪深度正相关且最显著,与低温负相关、与日雨雪量或雪量不相关,但与前2-3天的雪量正相关,与雪量累积以及低温累积的相关性显著提高,说明短期的降雪和低温对社会危害有限,只有持续较长时的降雪、深厚积雪、低温才会对社会产生严重危害;(3)当积雪深度超过8.0(19.0)cm,或者累积最低气温低于-7.0(-43.0)℃,或者累积雪量超过24.0(54.0)cm时,就会开始产生严重(极其严重)危害,社会关注度和响应度就会开始(明显)提高。In order to access the speed and degree of social emergent response to extreme low temperature,raining and snowing,icing disasters quantitatively and supply a reference in defending similar disasters in the future,a composite index is made up of the position of related reports,the number of related reports and the number of the special columns collected from a predominant daily newspaper（Chutian Golden Newspaper） in Hubei from Jan.9th to Feb.5th in 2008.Its daily variation and its relationship with meteorological factors are analyzed,then some meteorological evaluating（forecasting） equations for composite index are established and the five grades of disasters can be divided with corresponding meteorological index.The results show：1） The speed and degree of social emergent response to extreme low temperature,raining and snowing,icing disasters can be well accounted for by the composite index,and peaks and valleys of the index are highly accordant with the variation of snow depth,and the process of the 3 gradual aggravation of the disasters and the gradual deepening of people＇s recognition can also be clearly shown.2） The index has a significantly positive correlation with snow depth,and a negative correlation with low temperature,and no correlation with moisture conditions or daily snowfall,but a positive correlation with accumulated snowfall in the previous2 or 3 days.The correlation between the index and the accumulation of snowfall or low-temperature can be significantly increased that can explain the limited destruction of short-term sleeting and low-temperature and the serious harm to society only by long-term snowfall,deep snow and extreme low temperature.3） 4 meteorological evaluation（forecast） equations for the index is established and the five grades of disasters can be divided with corresponding meteorological index.When snow depth is above 8.0（19.0）cm,or the accumulative minimum temperature is below-7.0（-43.0） ℃,or the accumulative snowfall is over 24.0（54.0）cm,seriou

关 键 词：低温雨雪冰冻灾害 社会应急响应度 综合指数 相关性 预测(评估)模型 灾害等级划分 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]