一种基于吞吐量反推的海港交通需求预测方法  

A Method of Traffic Demand Forecast of Seaport Based on Thruput Backstep

作　　者：白子建[1] 徐建平[1] 朱海明[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市市政工程设计研究院,天津300051 [2]天津市城市规划设计研究院,天津300201

出　　处：《城市道桥与防洪》2010年第6期83-86,90,共5页Urban Roads Bridges & Flood Control

摘　　要：为克服传统"四阶段"预测模型以用地为原单位方法在货运需求预测中的不足,该文在充分考虑了不同性质用地货运特征不同的基础上,以整个海港集疏运系统为研究对象,借鉴出行链模型的相关内容,对海港集疏运涉及的外部路网、堆场、港口等各个产生货运交通流的环节进行全面的分析,得出一种基于吞吐量反推的海港交通需求预测方法。To overcome the limitation of traditional 'four-stage'forecast model by the land as the original unit method, the article completely analyzes every link producing the freight transportation of the external road network, piling-up site and port involving the collecting, distributing and transporting of seaport by taking the whole seaport system as the studying object and using the relative contents of trip chain model for reference, and educes a method of traffic demand forecast of seaport based on the thruput kackstep.

关 键 词：交通量 预测 海港 集疏运系统 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]