浦东新区1993-2008年急性病毒性肝炎流行特征及发病趋势研究  

The research on the epidemic characters and incidences trend of acute virus hepatitis from 1993 to 2008 in Pudong New Area

作　　者：李盛[1] 沈芸[1] 储强[1] 王晨[1] 陈红英[1] 吴红岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心,上海200136

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2010年第6期500-502,共3页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：浦东新区社会发展局资助项目(PW2008A-23)

摘　　要：目的对浦东新区1993-2008年急性病毒性肝炎发病的流行特征及变化趋势进行分析,并运用ARIMA时间序列模型对发病率进行拟合及预测,为制定今后一段时期的防治策略提供科学依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法和随机时间序列模型分析上海市浦东新区1993-2008年急性病毒性肝炎的发病情况及2009、2010年的发病水平预测。结果 1993-2008年浦东新区共发生急性病毒性肝炎病例19699人,年均发病率74.21/10万。发病率逐年下降,至2008年全区急性病毒性肝炎发病率降至22.10/10万。15岁以下儿童急性病毒性肝炎发病率明显降低,女性儿童已连续2年无病毒性肝炎新发病例报告。乙型肝炎发病占全部急性病毒性肝炎的20.00%～44.16%。甲、乙型肝炎发病率明显下降,丙肝和戊肝呈上升趋势。结论 1993年以来浦东新区病毒性肝炎发病率逐年下降,但丙、戊型肝炎的发病率未见下降现象。在做好甲、乙型肝炎预防工作的同时应重视丙、戊型肝炎的预防。Objective The acute virus hepatitis incidences of Pudong New Area from 1993 to 2008 were analyzed to explore the epidemic characters and variation trend of occurrence and using the ARIMA time series model to fit and forecast the incidence of acute virus hepatitis. These results will provide reference for the authorities to make tactic to control this disease. Methods The incidence of acute virus hepatitis from 1993 to 2008 in Pudong New Area were analyzed by descriptive epidemiology method and ARIMA time series model, and the incidence level was forecasted for the year of 2009, 2010. Results 19 699 cases of acute virus hepatitis were reported in Pudong New Area during 1993 to 2008, the average of annually incidence was 74.21 per 100 000, the incidence was gradually declined every year, and until 2008, the incidence of acute virus hepatitis of the whole area dropped to 22.10 per 100 000. The incidence level among children under 15 was sharply decreased. Cases of acute virus hepatitis on female children were not shown in the recent two years. The count of hepatitis B was 20.00 to 44.16 percent among the total number of acute virus hepatitis, the incidence of hepatitis C and hepatitis E were in a slightly increase trend. Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis A and hepatitis B in Pudong New Area have been in a decrease tendency since 1993, but the incidence of hepatitis C and hepatitis E have been in a slightly increase trend. It is important to enhance the prevention of hepatitis C and hepatitis E just as what we made to control hepatitis A and hepatitis B.

关 键 词：急性病毒性肝炎 流行趋势 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：R512.6[医药卫生—内科学]