海河流域近50年气候变化特征及规律分析  

Analysis on characteristics and rules of climate change of Haihe River Basin in recent 50 years

作　　者：郝春沣[1] 贾仰文[1] 龚家国[1] 彭辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《中国水利水电科学研究院学报》2010年第1期39-43,51,共6页Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2006CB403404);国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金项目(50721006);中国水科院科研专项(资集KF0701)

摘　　要：为应对气候变化带来的各种影响,深入分析并把握区域气候变化特征及规律显得越来越重要。本文选取气候变化的两个主要表征参数——降水量和气温作为研究对象,采用趋势检验、突变点检测以及小波分析等方法,对海河流域1956—2005年降水量和气温系列进行研究,并从趋势性、突变性和周期性等多个角度分析海河流域近50年气候变化特征及规律。研究表明,近50年来海河流域年降水量(尤其是夏季降水量)呈显著减少趋势,突变点为1979年,主要周期为2年和13年;而年平均气温(特别是冬季和春季气温)呈明显升高趋势,突变点为1986年,主要周期为5年和14年。相关成果可作为该流域水资源演变规律分析的基础。For dealing with the impacts of climate change on water resources, more and more importance is given to the research on rules and characteristics of regional climate change. This paper studies the climate change in Haihe River Basin in the recent 50 years in terms of 2 important parameters i. e., annual precipitation and mean temperature. A multi-perspectives analysis is conducted on the 2 data series by applying multiple methods, including trend test, turning point detection and wavelet analysis. The results indicate that, in recent 50 years, annual precipitation in Haihe River Basin decreases sharply summer precipitation in particular with a turning point at 1979, whose main cycles are 2 and 13 years. Meanwhile, annual average air temperature, rises markedly winter and spring air temperature, is particular with a turning point at 1986, whose main cycles are 5 and 14 years. These conclusions are meaningful in the study on characteristics and rules of water resources in that river basis.

关 键 词：气候变化 趋势检验 突变点检测 小波分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]