武汉市非常规气候要素的变化趋势分析  

Trend of Main Climatic Factors and Its Extreme Values in Wuhan

作　　者：文元桥[1] 陈正洪[2] 王海军[2] 任永建[2] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,武汉430063 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉430074

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报》2010年第11期177-181,共5页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(40805063/D0512);武汉区域气象中心科技发展基金重点项目(QY-Z-200701;QY-Z-200807)

摘　　要：根据武汉市1951~2007年57年间地温、强对流、冰雪冻土等13个气候要素的年序列,通过趋势分析和年代际比较,进一步揭示武汉市气候变化对全球气候变化和当地城市化的响应。结果表明：1）5项地温有4项为升趋势,年极端最低地温、平均最低地温达极显著,近57年升高了8.9℃、1.2℃,年平均地温也达到显著,而两项最高地温变化均不显著,年平均最高地温还有弱的下降趋势,即夜间升温快于白天,非对称性变化明显;2）3项强对流要素均为极显著减少趋势,57年来年雷暴日数减少了17.2 d,1951~1986年年闪电日数减少了15.3 d,年冰雹日数减幅最高,达88.3%,目前多数年份都观测不到冰雹;3）5项雪、冰及冻土要素均表现出一致的减少（或下降）趋势,减（降）幅42.5%~100%,其中年最大冻土深度、结冰日数变化极显著。这些结论对防灾减灾具有指导意义。Based on the 13 series of main annual climatic factors and its extreme values in Wuhan from 1951 to 2007（besides the 17 series already analyzed in the last paper）,the features of main annual climatic factors in Wuhan responding to global climate change and local urbanization are revealed through trends analysis and decadal comparisons.The results show that： 1） the four ground temperature factors among five factors in Wuhan show an ascending trend.The annual extreme lowest and mean lowest ground temperatures show an obviously ascending trend, increased by 8.9 ℃ and 1.2 ℃ in last 57 a.The annual mean ground temperature also shows an obvious trend.But the two maximum ground temperature didn＇t show obvious changes,in which the annual average maximum ground temperature was with a weak downward trend.It is showed that ground temperature is rising faster at the daytime compared with the night,which represents a significant asymmetrical change.2） The three strong convective elements are with the same trend of decreasing.The annual thunderstorms days and lightning days changed very obviously,reduced by 17.2 and 34.6 days during 57 a and 36 a（1951～1986） respectively.The changes of the annual hail days also has a certain credibility with highest decreasing amplitude（88.3%） and is not easy seen nowadays.3） The five elements concerning about snow,ice and frozen earth have shown a consistent decreasing trend, with a decreasing amplitude of 42.5%～100%,among which the change of annual largest depth of frozen earth and annual icing days are very significant.The result will be useful for prevention and mitigation of natural disasters.

关 键 词：气候要素 极值 趋势 气候变化 

分 类 号：P413.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]