基于GIS的粮食生产安全预警研究——以东北三省为例  

Grain production early warning——a case study in northeast of China

作　　者：李志斌[1,2] 陈佑启[1,2] 姚艳敏[1,2] 石淑芹[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《测绘科学》2010年第4期43-45,86,共4页Science of Surveying and Mapping

基　　金：科技部科研院所社会公益研究专项"中国区域性耕地资源变化影响评价及其预警"(2004DIB3J092)

摘　　要：本文借鉴国内外有关预警理论和实践的最新成果,对粮食生产安全预警的基本方法进行了探讨,建立了基于全国的区域粮食生产安全预警模型,并以东北三省为例,借助GIS进行实证研究。研究结果表明,吉林和辽宁两省2000年粮食生产安全程度低于2003年,而黑龙江省则相反,2000年的粮食生产安全程度则高于2003年,这与东北地区粮食生产实际状况相符,表明该模型可以较客观地反映区域粮食生产状况。文章最后根据模型对东北地区2010年的粮食生产安全进行了预测。This text drew lessons from the relevant early warning theories and the newest practice achievements both at home and abroad, made research on basic theories and basic methods of grain production safety pre-warning, developed the early warning model of grain production safety, and took three provinces in Northeast of China as an example to carry on the positive research. While the grain production status of Northeast of China was appraised, the change in regional grain-production was predicted. The result showed that： the grain-production safety degree of the two provinces Jilin and Liaoning in 2000 was lower than that in 2003, but the result was opposite in Heilongjiang Province where the grain-production safe degree of 2000 was higher than that in 2003. Comparing with the actual situation, it was proved that the model could reflect the grain production status really. Moreover, the grain-production safety degree of two provinces Heilongjiang and Liaoning in 2010 was predicted.

关 键 词：粮食生产安全 耕地 预警 东北 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]