基于等分散抽样法的配电系统可靠性评估  

Application of Average-scatter Sampling Method in Distribution System Reliability Evaluation

作　　者：陈文婕[1] 刘晋[1] 周云海[1] 伍咏红[2] 王正纲[2] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]湖南省电力公司,湖南长沙410000

出　　处：《陕西电力》2010年第6期23-27,共5页Shanxi Electric Power

摘　　要：配电系统可靠性评估的基本方法有解析法和蒙特卡罗模拟法。解析法精度较高,但计算规模随着系统元件数目的增长呈指数规律增加,适用于简单的配电系统;而蒙特卡罗法与系统规模无关,适用于复杂的配电系统,蒙特卡罗法的主要不足之处在于计算时间与计算精度的相关性,即为了获得很高精度的可靠性指标,需要耗费很长的时间。针对配电网可靠性评估中常规抽样法存在收敛速度慢的问题,提出了等分散抽样法。以RBTS母线6系统的主馈线4为例,应用该方法进行了可靠性评估,结果表明:改进的抽样法在保证计算精度的前提下,能够大幅度减小样本方差,加快收敛速度。The two basic methods to evaluate the reliability of distribution system are analytical method and Monte Carlo simulation respectively.The analytical method is of the higher precision,but its computational scale increases exponentially with the growth of the number of system components.Therefore,the analytical method is applied to the simple distribution system.Monte Carlo simulation can be favorably used to evaluate the reliability of large-scale distribution system because of its computational quantities being independent of the system scale.The shortcoming of the Monte Carlo method is that it will take a great deal of time if the high precision is required.An average-scatter sampling method is proposed for conventional sampling method suffers from slow convergence problem in distribution system reliability evaluation.The proposed method is applied to reliability evaluation of RBTS-bus6 -system,the results show that the proposed method can substantially reduce the sampling variance and accelerate the convergence speed under the prerequisite of ensuring calculation accuracy.

关 键 词：可靠性评估 等分散抽样法 样本方差 

分 类 号：TM743[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]