城市水供需离散系统投资的控制与仿真  

Control and Simulation of Urban Water Supply and Demand Discrete System's Investment

作　　者：李可柏[1] 陈森发[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,南京210044 [2]东南大学经济管理学院,南京210096

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2010年第7期1746-1751,共6页Journal of System Simulation

摘　　要：针对具有增长性和周期性的城市水需求,以及城市水管理系统具有确定的参数估计值的情形,建立城市水供需管理的离散时间系统动态最优化模型。在预测城市水需求的基础上,通过合理控制城市水供给的投资,使城市水供给满足城市水需求。利用离散最大值原理结合奇异最优控制,求出系统的最优控制方程和最优轨线。通过对系统制定动态最优投资决策,使城市水资源在水需求增长期间达到总供需偏差平方最小化。模型的仿真计算发现在某些参数条件下,系统具有强烈的初值敏感依赖性,应审慎确定;仿真结果还表明了城市水供给投资上限与水需求协调增长的重要性。In view of the situations that urban water demand have trend of growth and periodicity,and urban water management system have definite estimating parameters,a discrete time system dynamic optimization model of urban water supply and demand management was constructed.Based on predicting of urban water demand and controlling of urban water supply investment reasonable,the urban water demand could be satisfied.The system＇s optimal control equation and optimal trajectory was solved by means of integrating discrete maximum principle with singular optimal control.With implemented dynamic optimal investment decision-making on the system,the total square of biased deviation of urban water resources supply and demand could be minimized in the period of urban water demand growing.The simulation results show that the system has strong sensitive dependence to initial value under certain parameter condition,so it should be determined prudently;in addition,the results indicate the significance of keeping the coordinated increment speed between urban water supply investment upper limit and the water demand.

关 键 词：最优控制 仿真 水资源 供需管理 投资 

分 类 号：TP273[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]