基于突变理论的太湖蓝藻水华危险性分区评价  

Catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation of blue-green algae bloom of different regions in Lake Taihu

作　　者：刘聚涛[1,2] 高俊峰[1] 姜加虎[1] 许妍[1,2] 赵家虎[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京210008 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2010年第4期488-494,共7页Journal of Lake Sciences

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2008CB418106);中国科学院知识创新工程重大交叉项目(KZCX1-YW-14-6);国家水污染治理专项项目(2008ZX07101-014)资助

摘　　要：蓝藻水华暴发是湖泊生态系统中营养物质长期累积的结果,是系统营养经长期演化后的极端状态.突变理论评价方法无需确定指标权重,减少了人为主观因素,并且计算方便.本文基于突变理论,采取蓝藻水华暴发的表征因子(叶绿素浓度)和导致蓝藻水华暴发的环境因子(总氮和总磷)作为潜在危险性评价指标,蓝藻水华的面积、范围以及暴发频次作为历史危险性评价指标建立多准则蓝藻水华暴发风险评价指标体系,并结合太湖九个分区进行蓝藻水华暴发危险性分区及全湖评价.研究结果表明:竺山湖和西部沿岸为极重危险性湖区;梅梁湾为重度危险性湖区;南部沿岸、贡湖和大太湖为中度危险性湖区;箭湖东茭咀、东太湖和胥湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性较小,为轻微危险性湖区.整体上看,太湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性程度由轻到重基本上沿东南-西北方向变化,与营养盐浓度由低到高分布趋势相一致.根据评价结果,可以明确太湖各区遭遇蓝藻水华暴发危险性的大小,为蓝藻水华风险管理和应急处理提供科学依据.Water bloom is the results of long-term accumulation of nutrients in ecological system, and an extreme state as a resuh of eutrophication system after long-term evolution. The proposed method needn＇t define the weight of evaluation indices so that the influence of subjective factors on assessment can be minimized. Based on catastrophe theory, this paper takes water chlorophyll-a concentration as characterization factor of blue-green algae bloom outbreak degree, total phosphorus and total nitrogen concentration as the environmental factors of potential risk evaluation indexes, and blue-green algae bloom area, extent and frequency as the historical risk evaluation indexes. These parameters can be used to establish a multi-criteria risk evaluation index system for blue-green algae bloom outbreak. It carries out the risk evaluation combined with different regions in Lake Taihu. The results show that the risk in the western coast of Lake Zhushan, is the most serious, heavy in Meiliang Bay, moderate in southern coast of Gonghu and Large Taihu, and almost none serious in Lake Jianhu,East Lake Taihu and Lake Xuhu. In general,the degrees of blue-green algae bloom risk in Lake Taihu are from light to heavy changes from the southeast to the northwest,which is consistent with the nutrient concentration trend from low to high. The evaluation results define the possibility and the degree of the hazards of the risk of blue-green algae bloom outbreak in Lake Talhu,and provide scientific basis for the management and emergent treatment of blue-green algae bloom outbreak risk.

关 键 词：蓝藻水华 风险评价 太湖 突变理论 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]