城市生态工业系统模拟、优化调控方法研究  

The simulation and optimization control of urban eco-industrial system

作　　者：赵妍[1] 田强[1] 尚金城[2] 

机构地区：[1]长春理工大学化学与环境工程学院,吉林长春130022 [2]东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《生态环境学报》2010年第6期1416-1421,共6页Ecology and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家基础研究资助项目(2005CB724207)

摘　　要：工业化是城市实现现代化与可持续发展的必经阶段,但面临着严重的资源与环境问题。生态工业是实现生产发展、资源利用和环境保护良性循环的有效模式。文章在依据工业生态学原理对长春经济技术开发区玉米、汽车零部件产业链进行规划基础上,采用系统动力学vensim模型进行模拟与优化调控。最后结合灰色系统方法完成系统多种替代方案的多级评价,促进以工业代谢过程为核心的资源高效利用和环境影响最小化。结果表明,所建立的长春经济技术开发区生态工业系统动力学仿真模型可对其结构、功能进行分析,确定不同子系统间的动态作用关系,并得到不同规划方案时变条件下的发展结果。结合灰色聚类评估能够定量地反映系统在不同发展战略下的行为,并确定最优方案,具有较强可操作性。长春经济技术开发区生态环境现状较好,但随着经济发展和人口聚集,环境压力将加大,就此问题提出相应环境影响减缓和保护措施。Industrialization is an inevitable stage for realizing the modernization and sustainable development of city while it is faced with severe resource and environmental problems. Eco-industrial system has worked as an effective mode for facilitating the favorable circulation among production development, resource utilization and environmental protection. In this paper, the corn processing and automobile parts manufactory industrial chains in Changchun Economic and Technological Development Zone are planned based on industrial ecology theory, meanwhile, systemic dynamics vensim models are used to carry out system simulation and control. Furthermore, with multilevel evaluation, the study fulfilled representative alternatives by use of grey cluster so as to promote effective resource utilization and minimum environmental impact in industrial metabolism process. The result shows that the built models are capable of structural and functional analysis, meanwhile reflecting the feedback relationships among subsystems and getting series results in different scenarios. Evaluation with grey cluster can quantitatively reflect the system behavior under different development strategies and determine optimal scenario with comparable maneuverability. Currently, the overall status of Changchun Economic and Technological Development Zone is fairly well; however, environment and population issues would be getting more serious due to rapid economic increasing and population gathering. Therefore, appropriate environmental impact mitigation and pro-tection measures are put forward accordingly.

关 键 词：生态工业系统 系统动力学仿真(VENSIM) 灰色聚类 

分 类 号：X192[环境科学与工程—环境科学]