基于粗糙集理论的短时交通流组合预测研究  

Research on Combine Prediction of Short-term Traffic Flow Based on Rough Set Theory

作　　者：田光理[1] 苑红伟[1] 牛德宁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学交通运输系,江苏徐州221116

出　　处：《道路交通与安全》2010年第2期23-26,30,共5页Road Traffic & Safety

基　　金：中国矿业大学大学生实践创新训练计划项目(090114)

摘　　要：为满足交通流诱导系统的理论需要,建立了一种基于粗糙集理论的实时交通流量组合预测模型。通过粗糙集理论来确定组合预测中的权系数,对路段的交通流做出短时预测。结合某路段的实际交通流数据,对预测模型进行仿真训练,经过比较分析,验证了该组合预测模型的有效性和实用性。To meet the needs of Traffic Flow Guidance System,a real-time traffic flow combined forecasting model based on rough set theory was established.By rough set theory,the weight coefficient of combination forecasting was determined.A combination forecasting modelwas established to make short-term prediction to traffic flow of the section.Combining a section of the actual traffic flow data,simulation training was conducted by the prediction model.Through comparison and analysis,the combination forecasting model was proved to be effective and practical.

关 键 词：短时预测 粗糙集理论 交通流 组合预测 

分 类 号：U491.112[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]