装备研制方案的技术风险评价  

Technology Risk Assessment for Equipment Design Alternatives

作　　者：程军伟[1] 王超[1] 张国彬[1] 董宏国[1] 

机构地区：[1]军事交通学院汽车工程系,天津100361

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2010年第20期5125-5129,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：军事交通学院科研基金(2009A7)资助

摘　　要：针对装备方案论证阶段技术风险发生概率、后果影响程度与技术风险大小间的关系,基于相对熵原理计算技术风险各评价指标的主观权重与客观权重的组合权重,采用投影法构建技术风险评价模型。实例计算结果表明:技术风险评价模型初步解决了模糊综合评价或灰评价模型所存在的区分性不强、评价结论有片面性、依赖较多的历史经验数据等问题,得到了评价方案集中各方案的技术风险发生概率、后果影响程度及技术风险的排序,计算过程与符合技术风险的内涵要求一致,为装备研制方案的科学决策提供理论依据。This paper focuses on the relation among occurrence probability,result effect and technology risk of technology risk events.To use the relatiue entropy method subject weight and cbjective weight are composed combinnaton weight.An assessment model for technology risk is proposed using projection method.The results of an illustration show that the model principally solves some problems of inefficacy in distinguishing risk of alternatives,unilateral risk assessment conclusion and depending on more experienced data about fuzzy comprehensive assessment or grey assessment model.A sequence for occurrence probability,result effect and technology risk of technology risk events is acquired from the model.The procedure of model corresponds with connotation of technology risk and its results may be used in decision making for equipment design alternatives.

关 键 词：装备研制方案 技术风险评价 投影法 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]