基于DPSIR概念模型的水资源系统脆弱性分析  

Analysis of water resources system vulnerability based on DPSIR conceptual model

作　　者：董四方[1] 董增川[1] 陈康宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院遥感技术应用中心,北京100044

出　　处：《水资源保护》2010年第4期1-3,25,共4页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2006CB403402)

摘　　要：从水资源复杂系统角度结合DPSIR概念模型,构建了水资源系统脆弱性评价指标体系。利用大样本数据、投影寻踪、粒子群算法、插值型曲线,建立了基于粒子群投影寻踪插值的水资源系统脆弱性评价模型。结合河北省南水北调受水区水资源系统的实例,从驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应等5个方面计算分析了该系统的脆弱性。结果表明,以资源型缺水为主导的水资源基础条件薄弱已成为受水区水资源系统脆弱性的制约因素,且在未来很长一段时间内难以改变。In view of the complexity of a water resources system and adopting the DPSIR conceptual model as a reference,an assessment index system for water resources system vulnerability was constructed.Using a large amount of sample data and an interpolation curve,an assessment model of water resources system vulnerability based on projection pursuit interpolation with particle swarm optimization was built.With the water-receiving region of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project（SNWDP） in Hebei Province as an example,the system vulnerability was analyzed in terms of driving forces,pressures,states,impacts,and responses.The results indicated that water resources shortage has become the bottleneck factor of water resources system vulnerability,and would be difficult to change over a long period.

关 键 词：水资源系统 脆弱性 DPSIR模型 投影寻踪 南水北调工程 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] O242.1[理学—计算数学]