基于SEE-2R模型的可再生能源开发的可持续性评价  

The Sustainability Evaluation of Renewable Energy Development Based on SEE-2R Model

作　　者：娄伟[1] 李萌[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第6期34-40,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：SENSOR项目资助(项目号:003874)。SENSOR项目是欧盟第六框架计划下的课题;总共有20多个国家参与;作者是中方参与者。该课题主要目的在于开发出一套欧洲土地可持续利用评价工具--SAIT。SEE-2R模型借鉴其技术方法

摘　　要：开发可再生能源是应对能源安全与气候变化压力的需要。由于面临能量密度低、开发成本高、政策不完善、市场失灵等挑战,可再生能源开发面临较大风险。在这种情况下,进行可持续性评价是保障可再生能源可持续开发的重要前提。该文在充分考虑可再生能源的特性、能源替代,特别是资源的可利用量及再生性等因素的前提下,提出了评价可再生能源开发可持续性的SEE-2R模型,以区别传统化石能源评价方法。SEE-2R模型主要采用情景分析法、层次分析法、德尔菲法、可持续发展评价等多种目前比较成熟的研究工具及研究方法,以确保该模型的可靠性及可操作性。该文还以浙江丽水市为案例,利用SEE-2R模型对丽水市可再生能源开发的可持续性进行评价,以论证SEE-2R模型的科学性与合理性。通过SEE-2R模型的评价,得到的主要结论是:丽水市在光伏发电方面,属于弱可持续;在太阳能热水器方面,属于弱可持续;在沼气方面,属于弱可持续;在生物质发电方面,属于弱可持续;在小水电方面,属于可持续;在风能方面,接近不可持续。Summary Development of renewable energy is a response to the pressure of energy security and climate change.The developmen of renewable energyt faces greater risk,because it faced with a low energy density,higher development,imperfect policy system,market failures and other challenges.In such cases,the sustainability evaluation is an important prerequisite to ensure the sustainability development of renewable energy.This paper proposes the design concept and technical route of SEE-2R Model,under full consideration of the renewable energy availability,energy substitution and other factors.to distinguish the diffierent between traditional energy and rene wable energy.SEE-2R model mainly uses more mature study fools and research methods,for exemple： scenario analysis,AHP,Delphi method,evaluation of su stainable development,et al,to ensure the reliability and operability of SEE-2R model.This paper also demonstrates the scientifil and reasonable of SEE-2R model,though the sustainability evaluation of rene wable energy development in lishui City.By SEE-2R model,the main condusion on Rene wable Energy in lishui City is： The photovolitaic power generation is weak sustainable;The Solar water heater is weak sustainable;The Biogas is weak sustainable;The Biomass power generation is weak;Sustainable;The Small hydr opower is sustainable;The wind power is weak non-sustainable.

关 键 词：SEE-2R模型 可再生能源 可持续性评价 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]