灰色GM(1,1)模型在贵州省畜产品产量预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1) Model in the Output Forecast of Livestock Product in Guizhou Province

作　　者：李光[1] 余霜[2] 

机构地区：[1]安顺学院化学与生物农学系,贵州安顺561000 [2]安顺学院资源管理与环境科学系,贵州安顺561000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第18期9391-9392,9395,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：贵州省农业科技攻关项目(黔科合NY字[2010]3014号);贵州省社会科学规划项目(09GHQN-HQ04)

摘　　要：以1995～2007年贵州省畜产品产量为原始数据,分别建立了贵州省肉类、禽蛋和奶类产量的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,并对其分别进行了残差、关联度和后验差检验。结果表明,3种预测模型均通过检验,并显示出较高精度,可用于贵州省畜产品产量的预测研究。Based on the output of livestock product from 1995 to 2007 in Guizhou Province,GM（1,1） model was established to forecast the output of livestock product（including meat,poultry eggs and milk product）.With the forecast result of the model,the residual,degree of collaboration and error inspection of post-sample were also tested.The results showed that the established model had high precision and it can be used as a tool to forecast the output of livestock product in Guizhou Province.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 畜产品产量 贵州省 预测 

分 类 号：S117[农业科学—农业基础科学]