吉林省粮食总产量影响因素趋势分析  

Trend Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Total Output of the Grain in Jilin Province

作　　者：胡晓丽[1] 王波[1] 赵新子 吴春胜[1] 袁洪印[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林农业大学,吉林长春130118 [2]吉林省农业机械管理站,吉林长春130062

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2010年第18期9393-9395,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家粮食丰产工程项目(2004BA520A09)

摘　　要：采用灰色系统理论,对影响吉林省粮食总产量的各因素进行动态灰色关联分析,并运用GM(1,1)模型在对其发展趋势预测的基础上进行趋势关联分析.研究结果动态地反映了吉林省粮食生产发展的趋势,为粮食生产持续发展、科学决策提供理论依据。Based on the grey system theory,dynamic gray correlative analysis was used to analyze the factors affecting the total output of gain in Jilin province.GM（1,1） model was applied to forecast the trend of the factors and the trend relational analysis was carried out.The trend of grain output in Jilin province was reflected dynamically by the analysis results,which provided the theoretical basis for the scientific decision-making and sustainable development of the grain output.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 粮食总产量 灰色关联分析 GM(1 1)模型 趋势关联分析 

分 类 号：S11[农业科学—农业基础科学]