人口年龄结构变动对养老保障需求的影响研究  

Quantitative Analysis on Change of Age Structure to the Demand for Retirement Security

作　　者：王立剑[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学人文社会科学学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第8期164-169,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(批准号:07BRK004)

摘　　要：作为影响养老保障需求重要因素的人口年龄结构,正在并将继续发生重大变动,为了揭示养老保障需求与人口年龄结构变动间的依赖关系,本文首先运用微分代数方程理论诠释人口年龄结构变动对养老保障需求的作用机理;然后在离散状态下,分别构建人口年龄结构测算模型、人均养老保障需求测算模型和引入人口年龄结构变动因素的养老保障需求测算模型;结合陕西省相关数据资料,对城镇和农村养老保障潜在需求、预期需求和期望需求进行现实模拟。研究发现,2009-2050年,陕西省城镇养老保障需求将增长670.15%,年均递增5.11%;农村养老保障需求由2009年的493.85亿元增长至2027年的1 298.63亿元,后下降至2050年的945.35亿元。为了满足陕西省养老保障需求,本文建议当前养老保障基金支出应等于期望需求,养老保障基金积累应等于预期需求,参考潜在需求数据进行未来养老保障体系建设规划。Population age structure, an important factor to influence retirement security demand, is and will take great changes. In order to demonstrate the relationship between change of age structure and the demand for retirement security, this paper firstly used the differential algebraic equation to describe the influencing mechanism between population age structure change and the retirement security demand, and then constructed the calculating model of population age structure and retirement security demand, which contributed to the calculating model of retirement security demand in discrete state under the factor of population age change. Based on the above model and relevant data in Shaanxi Province, this paper did simulation calculation of the underlying, anticipated and expected demand of urban and rural retirement security demand. The conclusion showed that the demand for urban retirement security will increase 670.15%, at a speed of 5.11% per year from 2009 to 2050 in Shaanxi Province, while the demand for rural retirement security will grow from 49. 358 billion yuan RMB in 2009 to 129. 863 billion yuan RMB in 2027, and then drop to 94. 535 billion yuan RMB in 2050. Thus this paper recommend that the current retirement security fund expenditure should be equal to the expected demand, and the retirement security fund accumulation should be equal to the anticipated demand. It is also important to plan the future retirement security system referring to the underlying demand.

关 键 词：人口年龄结构 养老保障需求 微分代数方程 

分 类 号：F840.6[经济管理—保险]