房价上升促进还是抑制了居民消费--基于我国172个地级城市面板数据的实证研究  

How Do House Prices Affect Consumption:Promote or Suppress?——Empirical Evidence from 172 Prefecture-level Cities in China

作　　者：杜莉[1] 潘春阳[1] 张苏予[1] 蔡江南[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院公共经济学系

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2010年第8期24-30,共7页Zhejiang Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划基金资助,项目名称:“中国政府经济政策和行为对居民消费滞后的影响”(编号07JA790030)

摘　　要：房产价格可以通过"财富效应"、"抵押信贷效应"以及"购房支出压力效应"三大机制对居民消费行为产生促进或者抑制的作用。本文利用我国172个地级城市2002年到2006年的面板数据,对房产价格对居民平均消费倾向的影响进行实证检验,发现房价上升抑制了居民消费。我们还发现,造成这一影响的深层次原因在于我国潜在购房者群体比重较高、房地产金融发展滞后。文章最后提出了控制房价和促进消费的政策建议。House prices can affect consumption through three mechanisms:wealth effect,collateral effect and pressure effect of purchasing house.Using panel data of 172 prefecture-level cities in China between 2002 and 2006,this paper gives the empirical evidence of the impact of house prices on household consumption and finds that average propensity to consumption decreases by 0.8%~1% with every unit house price increasing 1000 Yuan,which implies that pressure effect of purchasing house is the dominant mechanism in China.We further asserts that large proportion of potential house buyers and underdevelopment of real estate finance contribute much to the negative effect of rising house price on consumption.

关 键 词：房产价格 居民消费 平均消费倾向 财富效应 购房支出压力效应 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]