上海市工业碳排放总量与碳生产率关系  

Research on Relationship Between Industrial Carbon Emissions and Carbon Productivity in Shanghai

作　　者：谌伟[1] 诸大建[1] 白竹岚[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第9期24-29,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(No.70673069)资助

摘　　要：工业碳排放总量与碳生产率之间的关系对于正确理解绝对意义上的减排与相对意义上的减排具有重要意义。本文首先对上海市1978-2007年工业碳排放总量以及碳生产率进行估算,并在此基础上运用因果检验,协整检验,VAR模型以及脉冲冲击和方差分解技术,对排放总量与碳生产率的关系进行动态分析。结果表明上海工业碳排放总量是碳生产率的Granger原因,并且两者存在长期均衡关系。进一步脉冲响应和方差分解分析表明:碳排放总量及生产率变化速率互有冲击作用,两者主要相对方差贡献率为自身。研究揭示了提高碳生产率是尽管无法降低碳排放总量,实现绝对减排,却是具有可行性的相对意义的减排,这符合当前上海市内在实现自生主观发展需求以及外在节能减排的客观要求。最后建议将碳生产率指标纳入上海市工业低碳化发展的政策制定中去。It is very important to study the relationship between industrial carbon emissions and carbon productivity,which helps to understand the difference of relative or absolute carbon emissions reductions.In this paper,Granger causality tests, Cointegrating test,VAR and IRF,Variance decomposition are used to analyze the dynamic effects between industrial carbon emissions and carbon productivity from 1978 to 2007 in Shanghai empirically.The result of study indicates that carbon emissions are the Granger reason of carbon productivity,and the balanced relation exists for a long time between them.IRF and VD analysis shows that there are impulses between rate of emissions and productivity,and moreover,the mainly relative variance contribution are derived from their own.The study reveals that the increase of carbon productivity has contribution to relative carbon emissions reductions,but can not reach the absolute emission reduction,which is consistent with requirements of development of economy and emissions reduction in Shanghai at the present stage.Finaly,carbon productivity as an indictor should be recommended to the policymakers of low carbon industrial development in Shanghai.

关 键 词：VAR模型 碳排放 碳生产率 上海 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]