财务舞弊风险的识别--基于财务指标增量信息的研究视角  

The Identification of Financial Fraud:Based on Incremental Information of Financial Index

作　　者：余玉苗[1] 吕凡[2,1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [2]贵州大学管理学院,550003

出　　处：《经济评论》2010年第4期124-130,共7页Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“人力投入与风险溢价共同决定的上市公司审计定价模型研究”(项目编号:70572063)和“基于DEA方法的相对审计效率测度与审计竞争战略选择研究”(项目编号:70702018)的资助

摘　　要：中国证券市场上层出不穷的财务舞弊事件沉重打击了投资者信心,严重影响了证券市场的健康发展,因而受到了社会各界的高度关注。与以往主要从静态视角研究财务舞弊识别的文献不同,本文从发生财务舞弊公司的前一年与舞弊当年的财务指标的动态增量信息视角入手,建立Logistic识别模型。研究发现,固定资产增长率、经营现金流量对流动负债比率、每股投资活动现金净流量、每股收益、股权集中度五个财务指标的变动对财务舞弊产生重要影响。本文的研究结果为有效鉴别我国证券市场上的公司财务舞弊行为提供了新的思路。同时,本文的研究结果对于独立审计师识别审计风险、投资者识别投资风险和监管部门加强对上市公司的风险监控也具有积极意义。The ever increasing financial fraud cases in Chinese stock market seriously depress investors＇ confidence and hamper healthy development of Chinese stock market, arousing much attention in the society. Instead of identifying financial fraud from static perspective in the existing literature, this paper identifies financial fraud from dynamic incremental information which comes from the financial index before and in the year of committing fraud. We establish a logistic model to analyze this problem and we find the change in five indexes, including the fixed assets growth rate,the ratio of cash flows from operating activities to current liabilities,net cash flows from investing activities per share ,earnings per share and ownership concentration, can produce significant influence on financial fraud. The conclusion of this paper provides new approach to the problem of financial fraud identification in china＇ s securities market, and also helps to identify audit risks for auditors, investment risks for investors and strengthen regulatory authorities＇ ability of supervising the risks of listed companies.

关 键 词：财务舞弊 风险识别 财务指标增量信息 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]