甘肃省庆阳市生态足迹和生态承载力动态研究  

Dynamics of the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Qingyang,Gansu

作　　者：张智全[1] 于爱忠[2] 罗珠珠[1] 陈年来[1] 黄高宝[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃农业大学农学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《草业学报》2010年第4期187-193,共7页Acta Prataculturae Sinica

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD15B06)资助

摘　　要：以2001-2005年统计资料为依据,应用生态足迹法,对庆阳市近5年的生态足迹进行了实证计算和研究,纵向比较分析了庆阳市生态足迹的变化规律及其原因,并获得了该地区生态足迹、生态承载力随时间变化的预测模型,据此预测了未来5年庆阳市的可持续发展趋势。结果表明,庆阳市人均生态足迹由2001年的1.12hm2逐年增加至2005年的1.34hm2,而人均生态承载力则由1.13hm2逐年减少到1.11hm2,可见生态承载力需求(生态足迹)与生态承载力供给呈反方向发展趋势。庆阳市2001年的生态盈余为0.02hm2,2002年开始出现生态赤字,2005年人均生态赤字增至0.23hm2。说明庆阳市人口对自然资源的利用压力逐年增加,目前已超出了自然生态系统的生态承载能力范围,生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾加剧。庆阳市2001-2005年万元GDP生态足迹由高向低变化,而生态占用率由低向高变化,反映出随着经济的发展,庆阳市的生物生产面积利用率和资源利用率有所提高,但生态环境的压力也逐年增大。进一步模型预测,庆阳市2010年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力分别为1.33和1.03hm2,其人均生态赤字可达到0.30hm2。表明庆阳市生态环境处于不安全状态,暗示当前的发展模式是不可持续的。The ecological footprint （EF） and ecological capacity （EC） of Qingyang from 2001 to 2005 were calculated, and the historical change pattern and causes of EF and EC during this period were analyzed. A forecast model for sustainable development trends of Qingyang was developed. The average personal EF gradually in- creased from 1.12 to 1.34 hm2 from 2001 to 2005, whereas the average personal EC declined from 1.13 to 1.11 hm2 , thus the EF and EC in Qingyang developed in opposite directions. In 2001 there was an ecological surplus of 0.02 hm2 , but in 2002 it became a deficit which rose to 0.23 hm2 in 2005. Over the same period, the EF per ten thousand yuan GDP decreased, while the ecological occupation rate increased, indicating that the biological- ly productive area, the resource utilization rates, and the ecological pressure were all increasing. The model forecasts that in 2010, the average personal EF and EC would be 1.33 and 1.03 hm2 respectively, and the average personal ecological deficit would reach 0.30 hm2. Overall, the results indicate that the ecological environment in Qingyang is not safe and that the present development model is not sustainable.

关 键 词：庆阳 生态足迹 生态承载力 生态赤字 可持续发展 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]