一种基于一致性证据冲突的证据合成方法  

A New Method of Combination Rules of Evidences Based on Concordance Evidences Conflict

作　　者：梁昌勇[1] 叶春森[1,2] 张恩桥[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]安徽大学管理学院,安徽合肥230039

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2010年第4期152-157,共6页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70771037;70871034)

摘　　要：针对Dempster-shafer证据合成结果与直觉决策认识之间的不一致性,提出一种新的证据合成规则。从决策的具体背景入手,描述Dempster-shafer证据合成公式产生悖论的两种情况,利用证据冲突的定义分析产生悖论的原因,提出基于一致性证据冲突的证据合成公式。该公式能减低决策中"一票否决制"和"众口烁金"等模式中决策信息放大或缩小而造成的误差。实例分析和实验结果表明,新的合成公式比较符合直观和常理,并较好地解决了上述冲突证据的合成问题。Aiming to the problem of conflict from intuition decision making and the combination result of dempster-shafer, a new combination rule was proposed in this paper based on the classes of evidence conflicts. The two types of absurdity were firstly presented according to demand of decision-making in real world, which are ＂one-vote-down system＂ and ＂public clamor can confound right and wrong＂. Some errors were analyzed, which is caused by the irrational definition of evidence conflicts in view of information strengthened or lessened. Finally, two numerical examples and experiments were applied to illustrate the validity of the proposed method.

关 键 词：证据理论 证据冲突 决策模式 合成悖论 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]