基于空间聚类分析的松辽流域水资源利用风险评价  

Risk Assessment on Water Resource Utilization in the Songliao Basin by Spatial Cluster Analysis

作　　者：张学霞[1] 武鹏飞[1] 刘奇勇[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学水土保持与荒漠化防治教育部重点实验室,北京100083 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2010年第9期1032-1040,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B06);国家自然科学基金项目(40701183)

摘　　要：随着社会经济发展对水资源需求的增加,区域水资源供需矛盾日益加剧,如何科学评价水资源供需矛盾引起的风险成为有效解决水资源失衡的有效途径。本文以1999-2006年的水量、水质和社会经济数据对松辽流域的水资源利用现状进行了分析,构建了由区域水资源总量等10个指标组成的水资源利用风险评价指标体系。采用因子分析得到高需水量、高供水量和劣质水3个公因子,然后采用空间聚类方法对上述3个公因子进行评估,得到松辽流域水资源利用风险分布图。研究表明,松辽流域水资源利用风险呈现出嫩江流域和松花江流域偏高,其它流域偏低的总体格局;嫩江和松花江流域为水资源利用高风险区;图们江和乌苏里江流域水资源利用风险程度较低。With the socio-economic development,water demand is increasing,and the conflicts between water supply and water demand at regional scales become increasingly significant.Scientific evaluation on the risk that caused by the conflicts between supply and demand of water resources is essential to the elimination of the im-balance.This paper analyzes the utilization of water resources in the Songliao Basin based on the water quantity,water quality and socio-economic data in 1999-2006,and generates a risk evaluation index system of water re-sources utilization,which included 10 indicators.Three common factors including high water demand,high water supply and low-quality water were used in factor analysis.The three common factors were assessed with spatial clustering,and the risk distribution of water resources in the Songliao Basin was estimated.The research results show that the pattern of water resource utilization in the Songliao Basin is that high risks is in the center,with low risk around the basin.Nen River and Songhua River have high risks and Tumen River and Wusuli River have low risks.

关 键 词：水资源利用 风险评估 空间聚类 因子分析 松辽流域 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]