基于生态恢复的塔里木河干流生态需水量预测  

Prediction on Ecological Water Demand in the Mainstream of the Tarim River Based on Ecological Restoration

作　　者：郭斌[1,2] 王新平[3] 李瑛[4] 李慧敏[4] 李卫红[1] 赵锐锋[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,中国科学院绿洲生态与荒漠环境重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]新疆塔里木河流域管理局,库尔勒841000 [4]新疆巴州水利水电勘测设计院,库尔勒841000 [5]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2010年第9期1121-1128,共8页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助课题(2010CB951003);国家自然科学基金项目(90502004;40671014);中国科学院知识创新项目(KZCX2-YW-127;KZCX2-YW-Q10-3-4;KZCX2-YW-Q10-3)

摘　　要：以2005年为现状年,用定额法、潜水蒸发法和地下水储量变化法估算出塔里木河干流的生态需水量,其结果分别为33.89×108 m3、23.97×108 m3和33.07×108 m3,通过分析得到现状年合理的生态需水量为30.31×108 m3。并根据阿克苏、沙雅、库车、轮台、库尔勒、尉犁和铁干里克7个气象站1995-2004年的月平均蒸发量,采用阿维里扬诺夫公式和群克水均衡场公式对塔里木河干流天然植被的月潜水蒸发量进行计算,在此基础上计算月生态需水量。通过分析发现,植被生长期(4-10月)的生态需水量占全年生态需水量的86%,尤其是植被生长旺盛时期的5-8月的生态需水量占全年的59%。根据制定的生态恢复方案,用定额法和潜水蒸发法预测3个目标年的生态需水量,将两者计算结果加以算术平均,得到2010、2015及2020年合理的生态需水量分别为31.88×108 m3、34.08×108 m3及36.84×108 m3,为塔里木河流域的水资源优化配置提供科学依据。In this paper,the ecological water demand in the mainstream of the Tarim River under the current year 2005 was calculated with the quota-area method,the phreatic evaporation method and the groundwater storage quantity change method.The ecological water demands calculated with these methods are 33.89×108 m3,23.97×108 m3 and 33.07×108 m3,respectively.In comparison,the reasonable ecological water demand is 30.31× 108 m3.Besides,the monthly ecological demand in the mainstream of the Tarim River was acquired on the basis of monthly phreatic evaporation calculated by Aweliyongrufe formula and Qunke formula based on monthly average evaporation（1995-2004） from Aksu,Shaya,Kuche,Luntai,Korla,Yuli and Tikanlik weather stations.Analyzing the monthly ecological water demand,it was found that the ecological water demand in the growing season（from April to October） was 86% of the annual total,with May,June,July and August accounting for 59% of the annual total.According to the ecological restoration scheme formulated,the ecological water demand of the three target years were forecasted with the quota-area method and the phreatic evaporation method.The reasonable ecological water demand in 2010,2015 and 2020 are 31.88×108 m3,34.08×108 m3 and 36.84×108 m3,respectively by averaging the two results.This study provides a scientific basis for optimal allocation of water resources in the Tarim River Basin.

关 键 词：潜水蒸发 塔里木河 天然植被 地下水位 生态需水量 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X171.4[环境科学与工程—环境科学]