河南省食管癌死亡率地理分布的趋势面分析  

Trend-surface analysis of geographical distribution of mortality of esophageal carcinoma in Henan province

作　　者：娄清涛[1] 全培良[2] 陆建邦[2] 张欣峰[1] 孙喜斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,郑州450001 [2]河南省肿瘤防治研究办公室,郑州450008

出　　处：《郑州大学学报（医学版）》2010年第5期726-729,共4页Journal of Zhengzhou University(Medical Sciences)

摘　　要：目的:分析1987年至1989年、1995年至1999年及2003年至2007年3个时期河南省食管癌死亡率的地理分布规律和变化趋势。方法:从河南省癌症及生命统计登记中心获取各个登记点的食管癌死亡数据,分性别计算各登记点3个时期的标准化死亡率。人工确定各个登记点的地理坐标并建立趋势面方程,根据方程绘制趋势面分析图并计算残差,对食管癌死亡率进行趋势面分析。结果:对3个时期男性和女性食管癌死亡率分别建立了三阶趋势面方程,拟合优度均大于90%。趋势面分析图显示3个时期男性和女性食管癌高死亡率地区均在北部和西南部山区,中部、西部和东南部地区死亡率较低。通过残差分析计算出3个时期男性和女性食管癌死亡率的残差值界限,发现存在异常地区。结论:河南省食管癌死亡率在3个时期的总体地理分布趋势基本一致。Aim：To analyze the geographical distribution and trends of the mortality of esophageal cancer in Henan Province from 1987 to 1989,1995 to 1999,and 2003 to 2007.Methods：The death records of esophageal cancer were derived from Henan Cancer and Vital Statistics Registry and the standardized mortality of every registry were calculated by gender.The geographic coordinates of every registry were determined artificially and the equations of trend-surface were established.The mortality of esophageal cancer was analyzed with the trend-surface analysis by drawing the trend-surface analysis maps and calculating the residuals according to the equations.Results：The third-order trend-surface equations in three periods were established in male and female,and the goodness of fittest was higher than 90%.The graphs showed that the mortality of esophageal cancer of male and female in the northern and southwestern mountain areas was higher,and the central,western and south-east was lower in the three periods.The outliers were checked by calculating the boundary of residuals for the mortality of esophageal cancer in male and female in three periods.Conclusion：The geographic distribution trends of mortality of esophageal cancer had not changed greatly in Henan province in the three periods.

关 键 词：食管癌 死亡率 地理分布 趋势面分析 河南省 

分 类 号：R735.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]