基于Bayes方法的民机冗余系统可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluate of Redundant System for Civil Aircraft Based on Bayes Method

作　　者：赵飞[1] 王华伟[1] 王岩峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,江苏南京210016

出　　处：《飞机设计》2010年第4期31-35,共5页Aircraft Design

基　　金：国家自然科学基金与民航总局联合资助项目(60879001)

摘　　要：民机中常通过冗余设计提高系统的可靠性,研究冗余系统的可靠性评估具有工程实用性。民机故障发生具有随机性,本文采用马尔可夫链描述民机冗余系统的状态变化;考虑到民机可靠性信息较少,要充分利用多源信息,运用Bayes方法对两设备组成的冗余系统进行可靠性评估。假定设备故障间隔和维修时间均服从指数分布,在不同的先验分布下,评估了该冗余系统的平均无故障工作时间,并计算了相应的稳态可用度。针对具体数值例,采用蒙特卡罗仿真方法,评估了民机冗余系统可靠性,并对仿真结果进行了分析。Redundancy is usually be used to improve the reliability of the system for civil aircraft.Study assessing the reliability of redundant systems has engineering relevance.Civil aircraft failures occur with the random characteristics,in this paper,we use markov chain to describe the system state changes.Considering there is little reliability information of the civil aircraft,we should take full advantage of multi-source information,and study the two-unit redundant system by using bayes method.Assume the failure time and repair time are exponentially distributed.We estimate the mean time to system failure and the steady-state availability under different types of priors.Combining with Monte Carlo simulation method to perform some numerical experiments,and analyzed the simulated results.

关 键 词：民机 马尔可夫 BAYES 平均无故障工作时间 稳态可用度 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]