基于动态机制灰色模型的电力需求预测  

Electricity Demand Prediction Based on Dynamic Mechanism Grey Model

作　　者：廖文炜[1] 曾二贤[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南电力设计院,武汉市430071

出　　处：《电力建设》2010年第10期6-9,共4页Electric Power Construction

摘　　要：灰色模型是一种常用的电力需求预测方法,由于该模型中关键系数的选取往往直接套用发达国家的研究成果,与我国国情不符,采用该模型预测的我国电力需求量与实际值有较大差异。基于鲁棒设计方法,提出了一种定量预测电力需求模型系数的方法,采用动态机制来选择模型系数,提高了模型的准确性,基于该模型对我国近几年的电力需求量进行预测。Grey model is a commonly used method for forecasting electricity demand.Due to the fact that the key factors in the model are often directly selected from the research findings of developed countries,which do not accord with the real condition in China,significant difference occurs between the predicted electricity demand and the actual value.Based on the robust design method,a quantitative method is presented in this paper to predict the model coefficient of electricity demand.The dynamic mechanism is used to select model coefficient,and as a result,the accuracy of the model is significantly improved.With this model,a prediction is made of China＇s electricity demand in the coming years.

关 键 词：灰色模型 鲁棒设计 电力需求预测 动态机制 电力市场 节能 

分 类 号：TM714[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]