基于Pareto/NBD模型的电子商务网站客户流失预测研究  

Research for E-commerce Customer Churns Based on Pareto/NBD Model

作　　者：代逸生[1] 沈培兰[1] 孙红霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学经济管理学院,镇江212003

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2010年第27期6792-6795,共4页Science Technology and Engineering

摘　　要：非契约情景下的客户流失问题越来越引起各方重视。作为此情景下的典型——电子商务网站而言,因其特殊性使得网站客户流失问题更难判断。Pareto/NBD模型是描述非契约客户关系情景下首个考虑到客户流失现象的客户重复购买预测模型,它通过预测客户的活跃程度P(active),较好的解决了客户流失预测问题。以Pareto/NBD模型为基础模型对某电子商务网站进行实证研究以此来验证模型解决非契约情景下流失预测问题的有效性。The problem of customer churn in non-contractual setting is rising more and more attention.As typical of this setting-E-commerce sites,because of its specificity makes more difficult to judge customers churn in this site.Pareto/NBD model is to forecast customers repeat purchase behaviours,which is the first model that takes into account of customer churn in Non-contractual setting.By predicting P （active）,it is better to solve customer churn prediction.In this paper,using Pareto /NBD model as based model to empirical study in e-commerce site and also test and verify the validation of the Pareto /NBD to solve customer churn problems in non-contractual setting.

关 键 词：电子商务 客户流失 Pareto/NBD模型 预测 

分 类 号：TP393.07[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]