重庆市城市化与生态环境交互关系的协整分析  

The co-integration analysis of interactive relationship between urbanization and eco-environment in Chongqing

作　　者：肖强[1,2] 文礼章[1] 刘俊[1] 胡聃[2] 李锋[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学生物科学技术学院,长沙410128 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心城市与区域生态国家重点实验室,北京100085

出　　处：《生态学报》2010年第19期5237-5244,共8页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家973资助项目(2005CB724206);国家科技支撑计划课题(2007BAC28B04;2009BADC2B03)

摘　　要：运用协整理论和误差修正模型考察了重庆市1978-2007年期间城市化与生态环境相互作用的关系,遴选出作用于生态环境的2项主要的城市化指标和影响城市化的4项主要的生态环境指标,它们能反映出交互作用的机制。结果发现:1978-2007年,重庆市城市化与生态环境之间存在长期均衡关系,城市化对生态环境的正向作用明显强于生态环境对城市化的反向影响,误差修正系数较长期协整方程中的系数要小。从长期来看,城市化水平对生态环境变化的解释能力正在逐步增强,这充分证明生态环境功能的弱化是城市化步伐推进的必然结果。就城市化对生态环境的响应效果而言,一方面城市化是影响重庆市生态环境的重要原因,另一方面生态环境对城市化也存在着反作用。生态环境对城市化进程产生外在压力,但这一反馈机制往往具有一定的滞后效应。城市化对解释生态环境预测方差分解起着重要作用,然而生态环境对城市化预测方差的贡献度较小。There exists various contradictions and stresses between the urbanization and ecosystems.Like the driving force of economic development,the stress on ecosystems plays a decisive role in the development of urbanization.This study makes an investigation for the interactive relationships between urbanization and ecosystems in Chongqing City in China by using Co-integration Theory and Error correction model from 1978 to 2007,and the search selected 2 main urbanization indicators expressing ecosystem stresses and 4 ecological and environment indicatorsthat is realted to urbanization.The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization and ecosystems,and the non-stationary series of urbanization,ecological and environment indicators become stable after the first-order difference which are all the first-order integration process,and there exist two equations in the city of Chongqing from 1978 to 2007.From the long run,urbanization is negatively correlated with waste gas,waste water and solid wastes while positively correlated with per capita consumer price index and per capita energy using amount.The co-integration theory indicates that whenurbanization changes by one unit,the waste gas discharge amount,waste water discharge amount and solid wastes discharge amount change respectively by 0.551,1.479,2.211,and simultaneously the per capita energy amount changes by 1.391.Error correction mechanism prevents the expansion of variation of long-term relationship in quantity and scale,the size of error correction parameters reflect a short-term adjustment that deviates from the long-term equilibrium.When urbanization changes by 1%,the ecological and environment indicators vary at a rate of 13.6%,0.5%,16.5%,1.9% inthe negative direction,these indicators are smaller than that of the long-term co-integrated regression equation,which shows that the long-term influence of urbanization on ecological and environment indicators is much more remarkable,and the ecological and environment indicators re

关 键 词：城市化 生态环境 误差修正 VECM模型 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济] X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]