天津市大气气态污染物与居民每日死亡关系的时间序列分析  

Time-series analysis on the association between gaseous air pollutants and daily mortality in urban residents in Tianjin

作　　者：张衍桑[1] 周脉耕[2] 贾予平[3] 胡以松[2] 张金良[1] 江国虹[4] 潘小川[5] 

机构地区：[1]中国环境科学研究院环境污染与健康研究室,北京100012 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与信息服务中心 [3]北京市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生所 [4]天津市疾病预防控制中心非传染病预防控制所 [5]北京大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2010年第10期1158-1162,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：基金项目：国家自然科学基金（30972433）;“十一五”国家科技支撑计划（2007BAcl6807）

摘　　要：目的 研究天津市大气气态污染物二氧化硫（SO2）和二氧化氮（NO2）与城区居民每日死亡间的相关性.方法 收集天津市城区2005-2007年大气主要污染物[SO2、NO2和可吸入颗粒物（PM10）]日平均浓度、日平均气温和相对湿度以及每日死因别死亡人数,采用广义相加模型,控制长期和季节趋势、气温和相对湿度等气象因素的影响,探讨SO2和NO2日平均浓度与每日死因别死亡间的相关性,分析PM10及模型参数对其相对危险度估计的影响.结果 大气SO2和NO2与人群每日非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡间显著相关,与呼吸系统疾病间无显著关联.SO2浓度每升高10μg/m3,人群非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡分别增加0.56%（0.23%～0.89%）和0.49%（0.06%～0.93%）;NO2浓度每升高10 μg/m3,人群非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡分别增加0.94%（0.17%～1.70%）和1.29%（0.29%～2.30%）.结论 天津市大气SO2和NO2污染与城区居民每日非意外死亡和循环系统疾病死亡显著相关.Objective To study the association between sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and daily mortality in urban population from Tianjin. Methods Data on daily concentration of inhalable particulate matter, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide, daily mean temperature and relative humidity, daily cause-specific death counts were collected. Generalized additive models was used to explore the relationship between sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and daily mortality, after adjusting the effects of long-term and seasonal trend, weather conditions, and to analyze the potential effect of particulate matter and model parameters on relative risk estimates. Results Results showed that the daily concentrations of SO2 and NO2 were significantly associated with daily non-accidental and cardiovascular mortality but not associated with daily respiratory mortality. An increase of 10 μg/m3 in SO2 was associated with 0.56%（95%CI： 0.23%-0.89%）non-accidental morality, 0.49%（0.06%-0.93%）cardiovascular morality, respectively. An increase of 10μg/m3 in NO2 was associated with 0.94%（95% CI： 0.17%- 1.70%）non-accidental morality, 1.29%（0.29%-2.30%）cardiovascular morality, respectively. Conclusion Our findings suggested that exposure to SO2 and NO2 was significantly associated with daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortality in urban population in Tianjin.

关 键 词：空气污染 时间序列分析 二氧化硫 二氧化氮 

分 类 号：R122.1[医药卫生—环境卫生学]