城市道路交叉口混合交通流机动车与非机动车冲突概率  

Study on conflict probability of motor and non-motor mixed traffic at urban intersections

作　　者：沈家军[1] 王炜[2] 陈学武[2] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学建筑科学与工程学院,扬州225009 [2]东南大学交通学院,南京210096

出　　处：《东南大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第5期1093-1096,共4页Journal of Southeast University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2006CB705501);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAJ18B07);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK2010316)

摘　　要：为了量化城市道路交叉口机动车与非机动车交通冲突,建立了二者之间的冲突概率模型.分析了机动车与非机动车发生交通冲突的条件:非机动车占用冲突区的时段内有机动车到达冲突区;到达冲突区的机动车提供的车头时距不大于非机动车穿越机动车的临界间隙.选取机动车车头时距到达分布、非机动车穿越机动车临界间隙及非机动车占用冲突区域时长作为影响机非冲突概率的3个关键参数,基于大量调查数据建立各参数的数学模型以及机非冲突概率模型,通过具体实例求得机非冲突概率具体数值.结果表明,随着非机动车流量的增加,机非冲突概率呈上升的趋势.计算符合交通流运行的实际状态.In order to quantify the conflict of motor and non-motor mixed traffic at urban intersections,a conflict probability model is developed.The conflict condition is analyzed at first,including the motor vehicles arrive at the conflict zone while it is occupied by non-motor vehicles;and the headways which motor vehicles offer aren＇t longer than gaps of non-motor vehicles crossing motor vehicles.The distribution law of motor traffic headways and critical gap and occupying duration of non-motor traffic are selected as three critical parameters influencing conflict probability.Finally the models of parameter are developed based on investigation data.On the basis of above research,the conflict can be calculated.The results through an actual example indicate that the conflict probability increases with the volume of non-motor increasing,which accords with the actual condition of the traffic.

关 键 词：交通工程 交叉口 混合交通流 冲突概率 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]