基于时间序列的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测  

Prediction Method of Gas Emission Based on Time Series

作　　者：孟海东[1] 孙搏[1] 司子稳[1] 王瑞智[1] 施兰兰[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古科技大学矿业工程学院,内蒙古014010

出　　处：《中国煤层气》2010年第4期10-13,共4页China Coalbed Methane

摘　　要：由于矿井瓦斯浓度的变化受多种因素共同影响,矿井瓦斯涌出量预测经常出现无法获得一部分变量的情况。针对该问题,提出了一种基于时间序列的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法,详细介绍了采用时间序列AR模型对矿井瓦斯涌出量进行预测的具体实现。实验结果表明,该方法能准确预测矿井瓦斯涌出量。Because the change of gas concentration of mine is influenced by various factors, so prediction of gas emission of mine can＇t get some variables. In view of the problem, the paper proposed a prediction method of gas emission of mine based on time series. It introduced implementation of using AR model of time series to predict gas emission of mine. The experiment result showed that the method could predict gas emission of mine accurately.

关 键 词：矿井 瓦斯涌出量 预测 时间序列 参数估计 AR模型 

分 类 号：TD712.3[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]