基于多层Bayes估计的战略协同网络供应链可靠性研究  

Reliability analysis of supply chain in strategy synergetic networks based on hierarchical Bayesian method

作　　者：张浩[1] 张铁男[2] 何明珂[1] 郭金龙[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学商学院,北京100048 [2]哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150001 [3]齐齐哈尔大学理学院,黑龙江齐齐哈尔161006

出　　处：《控制与决策》2010年第10期1552-1556,1566,共6页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70672086);教育部国家级特色专业建设项目物流管理(PXM20081421371062)

摘　　要：对战略协同网络中供应链可靠性进行分析和判定,得到了可靠度计算公式,并以此为依据收集定时截尾数据.根据战略协同网络供应链可靠性统计特性,建立两种Bayes估计方法和一种多层Bayes估计方法,分别应用于样本供应链可靠性评估中.在估计供应链失效率的基础上,对供应链可靠度进行估计.仿真结果显示,应用多层Bayes估计方法效果较好.The reliability computing formula of supply chain is achieved based on the analysis and judgment of supply chain reliability within the strategy synergetic networks.Accounting to the statistical characteristic of supply chain reliability of the strategy synergetic networks,there are three estimation methods,two Bayesian estimation methods and one hierarchical Bayesian estimation method,used for the evaluation of supply chain specimen＇s reliability.The test of the estimation of supply chain reliability shows that the hierarchical Bayesian estimation method is more effective than others.

关 键 词：多层BAYES估计 战略协同网络 供应链 可靠性 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]