黄河流域典型支流水土流失对全球气候变化的响应  

Response of Soil Erosion to Global Climate Change in Typical Catchments of Yellow River Basin

作　　者：范兰[1,2] 张光辉[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039 [3]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875

出　　处：《水文》2010年第5期25-31,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑项目"水土流失动态监测与评价关键技术"(2006BAD09B05)

摘　　要：黄河流域是世界上水土流失最为严重的地区之一,全球气候变化导致土壤侵蚀的任何变化,均对黄河流域水土保持及其中、长期战略的制定具有重要影响。本研究选取黄河流域12条典型支流,根据1961～1990年降水、径流和泥沙的实测资料,分别建立了各典型支流降水~径流深、径流深~侵蚀模数的统计关系。通过对英国HadlyCM3模型输出的未来不同时期降水资料进行Delta尺度处理,获得未来不同时期的降水量。基于已建立的统计关系,系统分析了各支流在不同气候情景（A2、B2）未来不同时期（2010～2039年、2040～2069年、2070～2099年）水土流失的潜在变化。总体而言,在全球气候变化的影响下,黄河流域典型支流在未来100年内的降水、径流深和侵蚀模数均呈增加趋势。因此,应加强黄河流域水土保持建设,重视气候变化对黄河流域的水土流失的潜在影响,并制定相应的应对措施。The Yellow River Basin,especially the Loess Plateau in the middle reaches,is one of the areas with the strongest soil erosion in the world.Any variation of soil erosion caused by global climate change,plays an important role in making the medium-and long-term strategy of the water and soil conservations of the Yellow River basin.In this study,12 typical catchments were selected along the Yellow River.Using the data of precipitation,runoff and sediment during 1961 ~1990,the relationship was investigated among the precipitation,the runoff and the sediments in the catchments.Precipitation of the typical catchments in different time periods was obtained after Delta downscaling processes of the data provided by the English HadlyCM3 model.Based on the statistical results,we predicted the variations of soil erosion in the Yellow River Basin in different periods（2010~2039、2040~2069、2070~2099） in the future under different climate change scenarios（A2,B2）.As a result,the precipitation,runoff and sediment in the 12 typical catchments will increase in the next 100 years under the influence of climate change.Therefore,the water and soil conservations of the Yellow River Basin should be strengthened.More attention should be paid to the potential effects of climate change on the Yellow River basin,and the coping mechanism should be considered.

关 键 词：黄河流域 全球气候变化 降水量 径流量 泥沙量 

分 类 号：S157[农业科学—土壤学] P467[农业科学—农业基础科学]