中国创业投资行业的波动特征研究  

Research on Fluctuation Characteristics of China Venture Capital Industry

作　　者：魏喜武[1] 陈德棉[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《科技与经济》2010年第5期7-11,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目--"创业人才的素质和识别方法研究"(项目编号:70572075;项目负责人:陈德棉)成果之一

摘　　要：中国创业投资行业的发展呈现出高度的波动性,而这种波动性会对技术创新等经济活动产生较大的负面影响。采用计量经济学的相关方法对中国创业投资行业的波动特征进行研究,结果发现,中国创业投资行业的波动是一种增长波动,即创业投资行业具有确定性的增长趋势,其发展过程是围绕确定性增长趋势上下波动的过程。研究同时发现,1994年以来中国创业投资行业的发展经历了3个较为完整的波动周期,周期内波动情况相当剧烈。The development of China venture capital industry shows high fluctuation,and this fluctuation will put a great negative impact on economic activities,such as technical innovations.This paper researches the fluctuation characteristics of China venture capital industry by relevant means of econometrics.The result shows that the fluctuation of China venture capital industry is a kind of growth fluctuation.That is to say,the venture capital industry has a certain growth trend,and its development process is one that shows fluctuation around the certain growth trend.It is also found in the research that,there have been three relatively complete fluctuation cycles during the development of China venture capital industry since 1994,and the margin of fluctuation in every cycle is very large.

关 键 词：创业投资 波动特征 波动周期 HP滤波 技术创新 

分 类 号：F279.2[经济管理—企业管理] F224[经济管理—国民经济]