金融危机前后的全球主要股指联动与动态稳定性比较  

Linkages and dynamic stability of the national of global primary stock index before and after the financial crisis

作　　者：黄飞雪[1] 谷静[1] 李延喜[1] 苏敬勤[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,大连116024

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2010年第10期1729-1740,共12页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71033002;70772087);教育部人文社会科学研究项目基金(09YJC790025);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(DUT10ZD107)

摘　　要：针对传统参数分析法可能存在参数和指标多样化而导致结果迥异的问题,提出直接从真实交易数据入手,采用具有准确拓扑序列的亚超度量空间方法.通过对2005年7月22日至2009年6月30日全球最具代表性的52个股指的日数据,并以2008年9月15日为金融危机前后的分界点进行实证,结果发现:金融危机爆发后,全球股市股指间地理区域聚集效应更加明显,各股指间的相关程度显著提高,其联动性更强;全球股指的动态稳定性在整体上是相对稳定的;在金融危机后,美国的股指影响力在降低,而中国在增强.为了避免全球股指剧烈波动,金融监管应该是全球协调的,而不应是一个国家或某个区域的单独行为.应保持世界各国证券市场的"多样性(差别化)",来防止经济和金融一体化带来的"一荣俱荣,一损俱损".The traditional parameter analysis method would bring the diversity of results in analysis. Starting directly from the actual transaction data,the subdominant ultra-metric space of a precise topology sequence was proposed.Via date data from the most representative 52 stock index July 22,2005 to June 30,2009,September 15,2008 was as the cutoff point before and after the financial crisis.The results：there was more significant clustering effect in geographical regions of stock index after the outbreak of financial crisis;degree of relevance is significantly increased and the linkage was strong among stock index;the dynamic stability of the global stock market overall was relatively stable.The influence of American stock index reduceed,but it of China was growing after the financial crisis.In order to avoid sharp fluctuations in the stock market,financial supervision should be global coordination,and should not be a country or a region of isolated acts.The diversity of the world stock market should be maintain,to prevent economic and financial integration of the saying ＂One with all,a loss will also be ruined＂.

关 键 词：金融危机 联动效应 亚超度量空间 最小生成树 全球股指 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]