西方主要国家和中国百年历史陆地碳汇比较分析和政策建议  

Comparative Analysis of Accumulated Terrestrial Carbon Budget of Major Developed Countries and China and Related Policy Recommendations

作　　者：聂昊[1,2] 邢继俊 王绍强[1] 程邦波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [3]科学技术部国际合作司,北京100862

出　　处：《中国软科学》2010年第10期15-22,共8页China Soft Science

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程方向性项目课题"面向履约对策的中国碳汇计量指标体系与决策支持研究"(kzcx-yw-305-3);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"东南林区森林的固碳潜力与增汇途径"(kzcx2-yw-305-05)

摘　　要：由于发达国家在保护森林资源、扩大森林面积等方面的长期努力,使其陆地生态系统历史累计碳汇(碳收支值为正)相当可观。然而在历史同期,我国陆地历史累计碳汇相对较小,难以有效抵消历史碳排放。本文通过对西方主要发达国家和中国在1900-2005年期间的历史陆地累计及人均碳收支状况的对比分析,同时估算发达国家利用陆地历史累计碳汇可能获得的经济效益,从而提出了西方发达国家可能利用其可观的历史累计陆地碳汇来抵偿历史碳排放欠账的观点。基于这种判断以及当前关于陆地历史累计碳汇研究中存在的不确定性问题,本文提出了我国参与国际气候谈判和加强陆地历史累计碳汇研究等方面的建议。Long-term efforts on increase and conservation of forest resources have made huge numbers of accumulated terrestrial carbon sink（carbon sink is that carbon budget is positive） for developed countries.Some major developed countries have enjoyed net carbon-absorbing terrestrial ecosystems since 1990.Meanwhile,accumulated terrestrial carbon sink of China is too small when compared with accumulated carbon emission,and the terrestrial carbon sink per capita of many developed countries are higher than China.Focusing on terrestrial carbon budgets of major developed countries and China from 1900 to 2005 as well as their potential economic profit for developed counties,this article presents an opinion that the developed countries will probably use their terrestrial carbon budgets to make compensation for their historical green house gas emissions.Based on the judgement and uncertainties in the researches of accumulated terrestrial carbon sink,we provide some advice for Chinese government about international climate change negotiation and terrestrial carbon sink research.

关 键 词：西方发达国家 历史陆地碳汇 减排成本 全球变化 CO2减排 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]