供应链协同需求预测机制研究  

Study on Mechanisms of Collaborative Demand Forecast in Supply Chain

作　　者：董绍辉[1,2] 张志清[3,2] 西宝[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北科技大学经济管理学院,河北石家庄050018 [2]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001 [3]武汉科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2010年第5期66-70,共5页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资金项目(NCET-05-0352);湖北省教育厅人文社科基金项目(2006y095)

摘　　要：如何实现供应链需求预测的有效协同是一个需要解决的难点问题。论文基于博弈论分析了协同需求预测的利益分配机制,定量分析了供应链协同需求预测的整体收益系数,提出了考虑收益和成本的动态激励机制,还定性分析了核心企业主导、信息共享以及信任等机制。提出的机制对提高供应链整体的预测能力,提升竞争力和整体绩效具有很好的价值。How to implement effective supply chain demand forecasting collaboration is a difficult problem to be solved.Several important mechanisms of collaborative demand forecast in supply chain are proposed in this paper.Profit dividing mechanism is analyzed based on game theory and dynamic activation mechanism is presented.Analysis of the interests of collaborative forecasting distribution mechanism,and quantitative analysis of collaborative supply chain demand forecasting of overall profitability coefficient are made.The dynamic incentive mechanism of income and cost is considered.The mechanism of core enterprise leading,information sharing and trust are qualitatively discussed.The proposed mechanisms can be used to improve the predictive ability,competitiveness and overall performance of the whole supply chain.

关 键 词：供应链管理 需求预测 协同机制 博弈论 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]