巢湖蓝藻爆发多要素预测模型研究  

Catastrophe Models of Cyanobacteria in Chaohu Lake

作　　者：方凤满[1,2] 金高洁[3] 高超[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,芜湖安徽241003 [2]安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室,芜湖安徽241003 [3]安徽师范大学附属中学,芜湖安徽241000

出　　处：《地理科学》2010年第5期760-765,共6页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：安徽高校省级自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2009A137);安徽哲学社会科学规划课题(AHSKF07-08D357)资助

摘　　要：以巢湖湖体为研究区,收集2000～2007年湖体12个监测点月水质监测数据以及相应时段气温、日照时间等气象数据。通过突变判别,选择总磷作为状态变量,高锰酸盐指数和温度、氮磷比和pH、氮磷比和日照时间等为控制变量,构建三对不同控制变量的蓝藻爆发尖点突变模型,经验证3个模型的交叉集方程B=8P3+27Q2均可作为蓝藻是否爆发的判别方程。当B值处于临界值0附近或<0,水生生态系统处于突变状态,需做好蓝藻爆发应急处置预案。模型检验与实际监测数据一致性较好。Taking Chaohu Lake as the study area,potassium permanganate index （CODMn）,total nitrogen （TN）,total phosphorus （TP）,Chlorophyll-a（Chla）,pH data in the 12 monitoring points of the lake and the corresponding temperature,radiation,etc.（from 2000 to 2007） from China Meteorological Administration were collected.Through the mutation discrimination,TP was selected as state variables,CODMn and temperature,ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus（N/P） and pH,N/P and radiation were decided as control variable,then three water bloom catastrophe models were constructed by 12 lake monitoring points data.The obtained cross set equation is B=8P3 ＋ 27Q2,which can be as criterion equation of water bloom outbreak.When valued in critical near zero or less than zero,then the water bloom would appear,aquatic ecosystems in the state of mutations,we should complete water bloom outbreaks of emergency response plan.Model testing and monitoring data consistency is good.

关 键 词：蓝藻 突变模型 水环境 巢湖 

分 类 号：X171.5[环境科学与工程—环境科学]