二氧化碳排放因素分解实证研究  

Empirical Study of Decomposition of CO_2 Emission Factors

作　　者：王云[1] 张军营[1] 赵永椿[1] 郑楚光[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学煤燃烧国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第11期161-165,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40972102;50936001);国家重点基础研究发展规划基金资助项目(2010CB227003)

摘　　要：基于Kaya恒等式基本原理,采用LMDI分解法构建了CO2排放影响因素的扩展分解模型,以山西省为例,系统量化分析了1998~2008年间CO2排放影响因素,并针对现有的CO2减排政策,提出了加快发展低碳燃料LCT和CCS技术,从＂源头＂和＂终端＂上控制CO2排放。实例结果表明,CO2排放量呈逐年增长态势,经济增长与能源强度变化为影响CO2排放的重要因素,该模型对影响CO2排放的相关因素完整的分解和系统量化有效,可供制定节能减排措施、决策借鉴。The expand decomposition model of CO2 emissions is set up by adopting Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index（LMDI）method based on the basic principle of Kaya identities.This model is adopted to systematically and quantitatively analyze the factors that influence CO2 emissions in Shanxi Province from 1998 to 2008 years,and for the existing policy of CO2 emissions reduction,accelerating the development of low-carbon technology（LCT） and Carbon Capture and Storage（CCS） are proposed to control CO2 emissions from the ＂source＂ and ＂terminal＂.The results show that CO2 emissions increase year after year,and the changes in economic growth and energy intensity are important factors for affecting CO2 emissions.This model is effective to completely decompose and systematically quantify the relevant factors that influence CO2 emissions,and provides reference for taking measures of energy saving and emission reduction.

关 键 词：气候变化 CO2排放 因素分解法 对数平均迪氏指数 能源消费 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]