一次积层混合云降水过程增雨条件分析  

Analysis on Conditions of Precipitation Enhancement Catalyzing Operation Based on Mesoscale Model,CINRAD,and Satellite

作　　者：翟菁[1,2] 黄勇[1] 胡雯[3] 蒋年冲[3] 陈晓红[3] 曾光平[4] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥230031 [2]中国气象局云雾物理环境重点开放实验室,北京100081 [3]安徽省气象局,合肥230031 [4]福建省气象科学研究所,福州350001

出　　处：《气象》2010年第11期59-67,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局云雾物理环境重点开放实验室开放课题2009008;国家自然科学基金40675001“江淮夏季对流云合并的观测和机理研究”,国家自然科学基金40905019“江淮流域强天气过程中对流云合并现象之地空联合观测研究”共同资助

摘　　要：基于中尺度数值模式MM5,新一代天气雷达、静止气象卫星和雨量等观测资料,对安徽省秋季旱期一次降水过程的增雨条件进行了分析。首先,模式预报的云降水结构与实况在总降水量及分布、云系回波特征、移动趋势方面基本一致,模式产品具有一定可信度,对云降水结构的分析表明,云中含有一定过冷云水且配合有上升气流的存在,这是有利的增雨条件。在此基础上,基于MM5模式结果计算了冰面过饱和度,散度差,K指数和850 hPa水汽含量,并由此得到综合增雨潜力指标,将指标与云结构、降水和卫星雷达资料进行对比,结果表明这些指标揭示了云系中有利于增雨作业的动力、热力、微物理条件,对云系发展和降水过程有良好指示意义,与雷达卫星的观测结果较一致。最后,卫星反演产品、雷达回波以及雷达反演产品如垂直积分液态水含量、回波顶高等特征与模式描述的云系结构特征一致,可判断作业的具体位置和时间,数值模式产品与观测资料结合为人工增雨作业提供了及时精确的指导。The artificial precipitation condition of a case during November 15-16,2006 in Anhui Province is studied based on the mesoscale model data,CINRAD data,geostationary meteorological satellites data, etc.First,the model results are validated by observed data,such as rainfall,the characteristics of cloud system＇s radar echo,and the moving trend.The analysis on the structure of the cloud and precipitation shows that the existence of supercooled cloud water with updraft is favorable for artificial precipitation operation. Then,an index for artificial precipitation condition is calculated based on the model results,which actually include the ice supersaturation,K index,divergence difference,and the 850 hPa specific humidity. All these indexes are contrasted between the cloud structure,rainfall,and other observed data such as radar,satellite,the results show that these indexes illuminate the favorable dynamic,thermodynamic,and microphysical conditions in cloud system,which could be a precursor to the cloud system＇s moving and developing, and also these indexes fit with the observed data well.At last,the characteristics of satellite re-trival data,radar echo,and radar retrieval data such as ET（echo top）,VIL（vertical integrated liquid）, are in accord with the model＇s results,so the accurate position and time for artificial precipitation could be given.This is how the model results are used with observed data in this case for artificial precipitation.

关 键 词：增雨 中尺度模式 新一代天气雷达 

分 类 号：P458.121[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]