南京市心脑血管疾病的医疗气象预报研究  

Research on Medical-Meteorological Forecast Models of Cardiovascular-Cerebrovascular Diseases in Nanjing

作　　者：毛宇清 尹东屏[2] 孙宁[3] 孙燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京市气象台,南京210009 [2]江苏省气象台,南京210008 [3]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044

出　　处：《气象》2010年第11期82-87,共6页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：江苏省气象科研开放基金项目(K200707)

摘　　要：以2003年1月至2008年7月南京市某医院的心脑血管逐日就诊人数为样本,首先根据其时间分布特征采用虚拟变量选择包含节假日等的22个非气象因子,然后通过逐步回归法筛选气象因子和非气象因子,得到最终模型的解释变量,采用支持向量机(SVM)回归方法分别构建了南京市心、脑血管疾病预测模型。将就诊人数分为5个等级,通过反查,模型针对心、脑血管疾病在同一等级和差一等级的准确率分别为87.91%和84.62%,实际预测结果较好,证明该模型具有较高的实际应用价值。Forecast models of cardiovescular and cerebrovescular diseases in Nanjing are separately built. First we select 22 dummy variables including holidays as non-meteorological factors according to the time distributive characters of the daily hospital visit numbers from January 2003 to July 2007.Then we choose meteorological and non-meteorological factors with stepwise regression method so as to obtain the explanatory variables which are finally used to build forecast models based on the SVM regression method.The daily hospital visit numbers are divided into five grades and the results show that the precisions of grade prediction in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are 87.91%and 84.62%respectively.Therefore, the models perform satisfactorily and can be applied to actual predictions.

关 键 词：心脑血管 SVM 虚拟变量 医疗气象预报 

分 类 号：O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]