基于GM(1,1)模型的住院人次预测  

Prediction of Number of Hospitalization Based on GM (1,1) Model

作　　者：杨婷[1] 王玉贵[1] 邓琼[1] 杨丹[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖北医药学院附属十堰市太和医院 [2]湖北医药学院附属十堰市人民医院

出　　处：《中国病案》2010年第11期33-34,共2页Chinese Medical Record

摘　　要：目的应用GM(1,1)模型预测住院人次。方法建立GM(1,1)模型对某三级医院2010年住院人次进行定量预测。结果 GM(1,1)模型预测住院人数效果非常理想,残差ε-=3.4548%、后验差比c=0.1130、P=1、r=0.9785,模型测定为Ⅰ级,外推可信。预测医院2010年住院人次为6.7342万人次。结论运用GM(1,1)模型可为医院合理配置医疗资源提供科学依据。Objective to predict number of hospitalization by using GM（1,1） model. Method had a quantitative prediction on number of hospitalization of a third-level hospital by setting up GM（1,1） model in 2001. Results the prediction of hospitalization number by using GM（1,1） model was very satisfactory. Residual error =3.4548%; Posterior difference-ratio c=0.1130; Small error probability P=1; an absolute correlation coefficient r=0.9785. The model determination is level I. The extrapolation is practicable. The prediction of hospitalization number is 67,342 during 2010. Conclusion using GM （1,1） model not only can dispose medical resource reasonably, but also can provide scientific foundation.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 预测精度 预测误差 住院人次 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]