灰色预测模型在能源消费需求预测中的应用  

Application of Grey Prediction Model to Energy Consumption Forecasting

作　　者：罗文柯[1,2,3] 施式亮[1,2,3] 李润求[1,2,3] 唐如龙 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,长沙410083 [2]煤矿安全开采技术湖南省重点实验室,湘潭411201 [3]湖南科技大学能源与安全工程学院,湘潭411201 [4]邵阳市肖家冲煤矿,邵阳422002

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2010年第4期32-37,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(50774033);湖南省自然科学基金资助(06JJ2069);国家安全生产监督管理总局安全生产科技发展计划项目(08-203;HN08-19;HNMJ10-05;06-394);湖南省教育科学"十一五"规划课题(XJY08BGD027);教育部科学技术研究项目(206100);湖南省教育厅资助科研项目(05A013);Key Laboratory Project Supported by the Provincial Technology for Safety Mining about Coal Mine of Hunan(200802)

摘　　要：以我国1998—2008年度5种能源实际消费数据分别作为原始离散数据序列,利用非线性理论中的灰色建模原理,以关联度分析和残差辨识为基础,应用缓冲算子三公理原理对各能源消费的原始序列进行二阶弱化(D2)得序列X(0)。再通过生成处理和倒数变换获得序列X(1),借助灰色系统理论数据处理软件、Originapro作图软件和Matlable计算软件求得各模型的待辨参数a,b和c后,获得基于贫信息的传统GM(1,1)模型、基于原始数据具有绝对误差的灰色CompertzI和具有相对误差的灰色CompertzII模型。通过残差检验发现,建立的15种预测模型的预精度在85%～98%,属好的预测模型,预测数据可靠。用其预测我国2015年度的能源需求发现,煤炭占总量的66%～70%,说明煤炭依然是未来能源中的主体能源,高效开发与科学利用是未来的重点,同时也揭示:高消费有限的不可再生能源,意味着主体资源即将枯竭,开发新能源已成未来社会稳定与发展的重大课题。According to the consumption of coal,oil,gas,nuclear energy and hydroelectric power from 1998 to 2008 in China,the original discrete data sequence was structured. Based on the correlation grade analysis and residual identification of gray modeling theory,the new data sequence （x（0）） was structured through the second weakening by the three axioms of buffer operator,and then,the final data sequence was obtained by the generation processing and reciprocal transformation. Through the gray theory software,Originapro software and Matlab,the identification parameters （a,b,c） was calculated. The traditional GM （1,1） model based on poor information,the gray Compertz I model based on original data with the absolute error,and the gray Compertz II model based on original data with relative error was established. Residual error tests show that：the prediction accuracy of 15 models is reliable from 85% to 98%; the major energy is still coal and the coal accounts for 66%-70% of energy demand in 2015; the key issue of coal industry is efficient development and scientific utilization. Owing to the non-renewable attribute of coal energy,the high consumption can lead to the depletion of coal resource,and so,the key issue of social stability and development is to develop new kinds of energies.

关 键 词：能源需求 能源安全 预测 GM(1 1) 灰色Compertz模型 

分 类 号：X915.2[环境科学与工程—安全科学]