污水随机排污的不确定性研究  

ON UNCERTAINTY OF STOCHASTIC SEWAGE DISCHARGE

作　　者：刘明[1] 葛磊[1] 丁丽丽[1] 任洪强[1] 谢文蔚 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏南京210093 [2]无锡环境保护有限责任公司,江苏无锡214000

出　　处：《计算机应用与软件》2010年第12期58-60,共3页Computer Applications and Software

基　　金：教育部科学技术研究重点项目(108150);水处理与水环境修复教育部工程中心开放课题(WTWER0721)

摘　　要：考虑到污水环境系统的不确定性,将污水处理厂的水质数据作为随机变量进行模拟研究。通过原始序列的概率分布和马氏链随机模型获得模拟序列的集合,采用关联度分析和误差分析作为检验模拟序列有效性的双阈值条件,满足阈值条件的模拟序列作为最终的模拟结果。并以石家庄某污水处理厂的水质数据为实例,模拟研究表明该方法取得了较好的效果,可为不确定性信息模拟预测方法提供理论依据。Considering the uncertainty of the wastewater environmental system,the data of water quality from wastewater treatment plant are taken as the stochastic variables herein for the simulation studies. The universal set of the simulated series is gained by the stochastic modelling of the Markov chain and the probability distribution of the origin data. The correlation analysis and error analysis are used to be the dual threshold conditions for justifying the validity of the simulated series. The simulated series which are suitable to the threshold condition are selected as the final simulated series. A case study is carried out with the instance of the water quality data from a wastewater treatment plant in ShiJiaZhuang. The simulation studies show that the method achieves a better result. A theoretical base is to be made from that for the prediction method of uncertainty information simulation.

关 键 词：贝叶斯模型 不确定性 随机模拟 马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗法 

分 类 号：O236[理学—运筹学与控制论]