行业产能发展的系统动力学分析  

An analysis of systematic dynamics of industrial capacity development

作　　者：何丽[1] 谢英亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学经济管理学院,江西赣州310000

出　　处：《北京市经济管理干部学院学报》2010年第4期16-19,44,共5页Journal of Beijing Economic Management Institute

摘　　要：本文利用系统动力学方法构建了行业产能扩张模型,通过灵敏度分析,发现固定资产建设时间导致行业产能超过需求,其中折旧政策对影响过剩产能绝对数量有明显作用,据此提出加强行业宏观调控、发挥行业协会作用,加快设备折旧速度,企业扩张更多采取兼并方式等应对措施。An industrial capacity model is built with the method of systematic dynamics.With sensitivity analysis,it is found that over-capacity comes from the time delay of line construction,and that faster-deception brings less over-capacity.At last,the advice is given： the government should enhance an industrial macro-control,and the industrial associations should play their function fully,the speed of assets deception should be accelerated and enterprises merging for business expansion.Should be applied.

关 键 词：系统动力学 模型 产能 建设时间 折旧 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]