我国未来温度变化的统计降尺度预估  

Statistical downscaling estimate of the future temperature variations in China

作　　者：高红霞[1] 汤剑平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学大气科学学院,南京210093

出　　处：《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第6期631-642,共12页Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40705029;40830639);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2006CB400500)

摘　　要：利用我国近600个地面测站的逐日温度观测资料、美国国家环境预报中心和美国大气科学研究中心再分析资料的大尺度气候变量,采用基于多元线形回归的统计降尺度方法,对1970-1999年我国1月和7月的月平均地面温度进行了统计降尺度分析,并将统计降尺度模型应用于未来气候情景下,对21世纪3个时段(2010-2039,2040-2069,2070-2099)的地面温度变化进行预估,对比分析了A2排放情景下多个模式的降尺度效果.结果表明,基于多元线性回归的统计降尺度方法在我国地面温度的模拟分析中是合理可用的.对于当前时段的模拟,降尺度方法能够明显改善模式对地面温度的模拟效果,并且东部好于西部,平原好于山地,尤其是7月份,当各模式对地面温度的模拟结果与观测资料相差较大的情况下,降尺度方法仍然能得到较好的结果;对于未来气候情景的预估方面,大部分站点温度都表现为明显的上升趋势,并且升温幅度北方高于南方,西部高于东部.Based on the daily temperature data obtained at nearly 600 observations in China and the sea-level pressure field and aerial variants from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research（NCEP/NCAR） re-analyses,we study the surface air temperature of January and July from 1970 to 1999,using the statistical downscaling method based on multiple linear regression.Then,we compare the results derived from the statistical downscaling method with those from observations.We also apply the statistical downscaling method to the future climate condition,in attempt to predict the surface temperature of three periods（2010-2039,2040-2069,2070-2099） of the 21st century.Furthermore,we analyze the results based on the statistical downscaling method under several various Global Climate Model（GCM） from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC） Special Report on Emissions Scenarios（SRES） A2 scenario.Our results show that the statistical downscaling method based on multivariate linear regression is fine in the stimulation of the surface temperature in China.For the present climate condition,the statistical downscaling method can improve the model＇s ability of simulating temperature,with better results in the eastern part of China than its west,and in the plane than in the mountainous region,especially in July.When the results differ a lot from the observed results,we can still get good results through the statistical downscaling,and thus all the models match better with each other.For the 21st century,the monthly mean temperature has a significant increase at almost all the stations in both January and July.The estimated mean temperature increase is larger in the north than in the south,and in the west than in the east.

关 键 词：中国地面温度 统计降尺度 多元线性回归 多模式集合 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]