Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in China's Mainland using meta-modeling  

作　　者：CAO ChunXiang XU Min CHANG ChaoYi XUE Yong ZHONG ShaoBo FANG LiQun CAO WuChun ZHANG Hao GAO MengXu HE QiSheng ZHAO Jian CHEN Wei ZHENG Sheng LI XiaoWen 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [2]Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China [3]Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2010年第36期4168-4178,共11页

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2007CB714404);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40871173);the Spe-cial Grant for the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases (2008ZX10004-012)

摘　　要：A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in China's Mainland for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza （HPAI） with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in China's Mainland for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.

关 键 词：高致病性禽流感疫情 中国内地 风险分析 MODIS数据 归一化植被指数 最大熵模型 建模 中继 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] TS972.1[轻工技术与工程]